The playbook

The engine trades one idea: when gold is already trending, a break out of its recent range tends to keep going. It only takes the trade when four things line up on the 15-minute chart.

The four conditions (for a buy; a sell is the mirror image)

1. Breakout. The candle closes above the highest high of the previous 20 candles (the last 5 hours). Price is escaping its range.
2. Trend. The 50-candle average is above the 200-candle average, and price is above the 50. The bigger picture already points up.
3. Higher timeframe. On the 1-hour chart, the last closed candle is above its 50-hour average. Trading with the hourly trend, not against it.
4. Momentum, not exhaustion. RSI is between 50 and 75. Above 50 means buyers are in control; above 75 the move is often stretched and late.

Where the stop and target go

• Stop = entry minus 1.5 × ATR. ATR is gold's typical candle size right now, so the stop sits outside normal noise and widens automatically on volatile days.
• Target = entry plus 2 × the stop distance. Every win pays twice what a loss costs.
• With 2:1, you break even winning just 1 trade in 3. Losing streaks of 4–6 are normal; the maths works over dozens of trades, not one.

When it stays out

• 15 minutes before to 30 minutes after big US news (NFP, CPI, FOMC, GDP, PCE). Price jumps and spreads widen.
• After losing 3R in a day, or after 6 alerts in a day. This protects you from revenge trading.
• When gold is too quiet or too wild (ATR outside 0.03–0.60% of price).

Position size calculator

Risk a fixed slice of your account on every trade. On Exness, 1 standard lot of XAUUSD is 100 oz, so a $1 move is $100 per lot.

Account balance (USD) Risk per trade (%) Stop distance ($ per oz)

Lot size

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Words you'll see

R

The amount you risk on a trade. If you risk $10, a +2R win makes $20 and a −1R loss costs $10.

EMA 50 / 200

Moving averages of the last 50 and 200 closing prices, weighted to recent ones. 50 above 200 = uptrend.

RSI

Relative Strength Index, 0–100. Measures recent up-moves against down-moves. Above 50 favours buyers; above 70–75 is stretched.

ATR

Average True Range: gold's typical 15-minute candle size in dollars. Used to size stops.

Breakout level

The highest high (or lowest low) of the previous 20 candles. A close beyond it triggers the setup.

Spread

The gap between Exness's buy and sell price. It's a cost on every trade, so results here deduct it.

Expectancy

Average R per trade over many trades. Positive means the edge is real; it's the number to judge the system by.

Drawdown

The biggest drop from a high point in total R. Tells you how bad a normal losing run gets.

Shadow trade

A signal logged and graded but never alerted — the engine's backfilled history, or a new rule version under test.

This is a learning and signal tool, not financial advice. Trade sizes you can afford to lose while the live record builds up.